Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.
Identifieur interne : 000414 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000413; suivant : 000415Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.
Auteurs : Matthias An Der Heiden [Allemagne] ; Udo Buchholz ; Gérard Krause ; Göran Kirchner ; Hermann Claus ; Walter H. HaasSource :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Allemagne, Grippe humaine.
- Adulte, Caractéristiques familiales, Enfant, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Santé publique, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Surveillance sentinelle.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Allemagne.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Germany.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Adult, Child, Family Characteristics, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Statistical, Public Health, Sentinel Surveillance.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared phase 6 of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Although by the end of September 2009, the novel virus had been reported from all continents, the impact in most countries of the northern hemisphere has been limited. The return of the virus in a second wave would encounter populations that are still nonimmune and not vaccinated yet. We modelled the effect of control strategies to reduce the spread with the goal to defer the epidemic wave in a country where it is detected in a very early stage.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
We constructed a deterministic SEIR model using the age distribution and size of the population of Germany based on the observed number of imported cases and the early findings for the epidemiologic characteristics described by Fraser (Science, 2009). We propose a two-step control strategy with an initial effort to trace, quarantine, and selectively give prophylactic treatment to contacts of the first 100 to 500 cases. In the second step, the same measures are focused on the households of the next 5,000 to 10,000 cases. As a result, the peak of the epidemic could be delayed up to 7.6 weeks if up to 30% of cases are detected. However, the cumulative attack rates would not change. Necessary doses of antivirals would be less than the number of treatment courses for 0.1% of the population. In a sensitivity analysis, both case detection rate and the variation of R0 have major effects on the resulting delay.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
Control strategies that reduce the spread of the disease during the early phase of a pandemic wave may lead to a substantial delay of the epidemic. Since prophylactic treatment is only offered to the contacts of the first 10,000 cases, the amount of antivirals needed is still very limited.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008356
PubMed: 20027293
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.</title><author><name sortKey="An Der Heiden, Matthias" sort="An Der Heiden, Matthias" uniqKey="An Der Heiden M" first="Matthias" last="An Der Heiden">Matthias An Der Heiden</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. anderHeidenM@rki.de</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Buchholz, Udo" sort="Buchholz, Udo" uniqKey="Buchholz U" first="Udo" last="Buchholz">Udo Buchholz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Krause, Gerard" sort="Krause, Gerard" uniqKey="Krause G" first="Gérard" last="Krause">Gérard Krause</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kirchner, Goran" sort="Kirchner, Goran" uniqKey="Kirchner G" first="Göran" last="Kirchner">Göran Kirchner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Claus, Hermann" sort="Claus, Hermann" uniqKey="Claus H" first="Hermann" last="Claus">Hermann Claus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Haas, Walter H" sort="Haas, Walter H" uniqKey="Haas W" first="Walter H" last="Haas">Walter H. Haas</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:20027293</idno><idno type="pmid">20027293</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0008356</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000357</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000357</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000357</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000357</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000357</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.</title><author><name sortKey="An Der Heiden, Matthias" sort="An Der Heiden, Matthias" uniqKey="An Der Heiden M" first="Matthias" last="An Der Heiden">Matthias An Der Heiden</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. anderHeidenM@rki.de</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Buchholz, Udo" sort="Buchholz, Udo" uniqKey="Buchholz U" first="Udo" last="Buchholz">Udo Buchholz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Krause, Gerard" sort="Krause, Gerard" uniqKey="Krause G" first="Gérard" last="Krause">Gérard Krause</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kirchner, Goran" sort="Kirchner, Goran" uniqKey="Kirchner G" first="Göran" last="Kirchner">Göran Kirchner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Claus, Hermann" sort="Claus, Hermann" uniqKey="Claus H" first="Hermann" last="Claus">Hermann Claus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Haas, Walter H" sort="Haas, Walter H" uniqKey="Haas W" first="Walter H" last="Haas">Walter H. Haas</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2009" type="published">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Child</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Germany (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Sentinel Surveillance</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Allemagne (épidémiologie)</term><term>Caractéristiques familiales</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Surveillance sentinelle</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Germany</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne</term><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Child</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Sentinel Surveillance</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Caractéristiques familiales</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Surveillance sentinelle</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Allemagne</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared phase 6 of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Although by the end of September 2009, the novel virus had been reported from all continents, the impact in most countries of the northern hemisphere has been limited. The return of the virus in a second wave would encounter populations that are still nonimmune and not vaccinated yet. We modelled the effect of control strategies to reduce the spread with the goal to defer the epidemic wave in a country where it is detected in a very early stage.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS</b></p><p>We constructed a deterministic SEIR model using the age distribution and size of the population of Germany based on the observed number of imported cases and the early findings for the epidemiologic characteristics described by Fraser (Science, 2009). We propose a two-step control strategy with an initial effort to trace, quarantine, and selectively give prophylactic treatment to contacts of the first 100 to 500 cases. In the second step, the same measures are focused on the households of the next 5,000 to 10,000 cases. As a result, the peak of the epidemic could be delayed up to 7.6 weeks if up to 30% of cases are detected. However, the cumulative attack rates would not change. Necessary doses of antivirals would be less than the number of treatment courses for 0.1% of the population. In a sensitivity analysis, both case detection rate and the variation of R0 have major effects on the resulting delay.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE</b></p><p>Control strategies that reduce the spread of the disease during the early phase of a pandemic wave may lead to a substantial delay of the epidemic. Since prophylactic treatment is only offered to the contacts of the first 10,000 cases, the amount of antivirals needed is still very limited.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">20027293</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2010</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>17</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>4</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2009</Year><Month>Dec</Month><Day>21</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e8356</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0008356</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared phase 6 of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Although by the end of September 2009, the novel virus had been reported from all continents, the impact in most countries of the northern hemisphere has been limited. The return of the virus in a second wave would encounter populations that are still nonimmune and not vaccinated yet. We modelled the effect of control strategies to reduce the spread with the goal to defer the epidemic wave in a country where it is detected in a very early stage.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">We constructed a deterministic SEIR model using the age distribution and size of the population of Germany based on the observed number of imported cases and the early findings for the epidemiologic characteristics described by Fraser (Science, 2009). We propose a two-step control strategy with an initial effort to trace, quarantine, and selectively give prophylactic treatment to contacts of the first 100 to 500 cases. In the second step, the same measures are focused on the households of the next 5,000 to 10,000 cases. As a result, the peak of the epidemic could be delayed up to 7.6 weeks if up to 30% of cases are detected. However, the cumulative attack rates would not change. Necessary doses of antivirals would be less than the number of treatment courses for 0.1% of the population. In a sensitivity analysis, both case detection rate and the variation of R0 have major effects on the resulting delay.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Control strategies that reduce the spread of the disease during the early phase of a pandemic wave may lead to a substantial delay of the epidemic. Since prophylactic treatment is only offered to the contacts of the first 10,000 cases, the amount of antivirals needed is still very limited.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>An der Heiden</LastName><ForeName>Matthias</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany. anderHeidenM@rki.de</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Buchholz</LastName><ForeName>Udo</ForeName><Initials>U</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Krause</LastName><ForeName>Gérard</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kirchner</LastName><ForeName>Göran</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Claus</LastName><ForeName>Hermann</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Haas</LastName><ForeName>Walter H</ForeName><Initials>WH</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2009</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005191" MajorTopicYN="N">Family Characteristics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005858" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Germany</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="Y">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011634" MajorTopicYN="Y">Public Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018571" MajorTopicYN="N">Sentinel Surveillance</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2009</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>28</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2009</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>04</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2009</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2009</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2010</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20027293</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0008356</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC2791869</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Apr 11;103(15):5935-40</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16585506</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2005 Nov 26;331(7527):1242-3</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16176938</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2006 Jul 27;442(7101):448-52</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16642006</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2006 Sep;3(9):e361</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16881729</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Med. 2006;4:26</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17059593</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2007 Mar 29;446(7135):533-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17392785</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Mar;14(3):365-72</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18325247</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Mar 25;105(12):4639-44</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18332436</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2008 Apr 10;452(7188):750-4</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18401408</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2009 Feb 12;14(6). pii: 19115</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19215720</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 May 22;324(5930):996-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19460969</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Wkly Epidemiol Rec. 2009 Jun 5;84(23):213-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19499605</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 Jun 19;324(5934):1557-61</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19433588</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Bull Math Biol. 2009 Nov;71(8):1954-66</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19475453</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):729-33</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19745114</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2006 Jun;3(6):e212</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16640458</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li></country><region><li>Berlin</li></region><settlement><li>Berlin</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Buchholz, Udo" sort="Buchholz, Udo" uniqKey="Buchholz U" first="Udo" last="Buchholz">Udo Buchholz</name><name sortKey="Claus, Hermann" sort="Claus, Hermann" uniqKey="Claus H" first="Hermann" last="Claus">Hermann Claus</name><name sortKey="Haas, Walter H" sort="Haas, Walter H" uniqKey="Haas W" first="Walter H" last="Haas">Walter H. Haas</name><name sortKey="Kirchner, Goran" sort="Kirchner, Goran" uniqKey="Kirchner G" first="Göran" last="Kirchner">Göran Kirchner</name><name sortKey="Krause, Gerard" sort="Krause, Gerard" uniqKey="Krause G" first="Gérard" last="Krause">Gérard Krause</name></noCountry><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="An Der Heiden, Matthias" sort="An Der Heiden, Matthias" uniqKey="An Der Heiden M" first="Matthias" last="An Der Heiden">Matthias An Der Heiden</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/GrippeAllemagneV3/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000414 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000414 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= GrippeAllemagneV3
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:20027293
|texte= Breaking the waves: modelling the potential impact of public health measures to defer the epidemic peak of novel influenza A/H1N1.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:20027293" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a GrippeAllemagneV3
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.35. |  |